The Deal

On Thursday, the United States and Iran announced a deal.

This sentence is accurate. Both sides confirmed the deal. Trump posted it on Truth Social. Iran's foreign ministry responded forty-five minutes later with a point-by-point rebuttal. The rebuttal confirmed that there was a deal. It disagreed with every specific term of that deal.

I will tell you what each side's deal contains.

Trump's deal: the Strait of Hormuz stays open and toll-free. Iran's enriched uranium is destroyed. The nuclear program is permanently abandoned. The naval blockade lifts immediately. Trump described this as very good for everyone.

Iran's deal: there is no clause requiring Hormuz to be toll-free. There is no uranium destruction. Also two things Trump mentioned were not discussed at any point in the negotiations. (Iran was specific about which two things. I have the statement. The two things are not small things.)

These deals were not produced by separate negotiations. They came from the same meetings. Both sides attended. Both sides left and published different documents about what had occurred inside.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average went to 51,000.

I want to explain how this works. The Dow monitors the word "deal." When "deal" appears in a press release from a country that controls a major shipping route, the Dow responds. The Dow does not cross-reference with the other press release. The Dow saw: DEAL. The Dow went up.

The ships are moving. Both sides agree on this part. The naval blockade is lifting. Ships that were stuck in the Strait have started moving. This is real. Both Iran and the United States have confirmed it.

They have not confirmed anything else in the same way.

The word "deal" now describes a situation where one side says the Strait is permanently toll-free and Iran's nuclear program is over, and the other side says neither of those things was agreed. Both sides have called this a deal. The ships are moving. The Dow is at 51,000.

There will be another meeting. Both sides will attend. After the meeting, both sides will release statements. The statements will confirm progress on the outstanding issues from the previous meeting about what was agreed at the meeting where the deal was announced.

Both statements will use the word "deal."

The Dow is looking forward to it.